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Government of Indonesia.West Sumatra and Jambi Natural Disasters: Damage, Loss and Preliminary Needs Assessment

ASEAN Disaster Law Mapping

The ASEAN Country Profile Report provides further national level analysis in support of the “Implementing AADMER: A Regional Stocktake ” and should be read in conjunction with this report. This is part of a wider regional project to develop an online platform and other forms of peer learning on implementing the disaster preparedness and response elements of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). The report was prepared on behalf of the IFRC Disaster Law Programme as part of a project to provide technical and research support to the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM). The report provides country level profiles analysing implementation of AADMER in relevant national laws and policies of the ten ASEAN Member States (AMS).

Disaster Response in Asia and the Pacific: A Guide to International Tools and Services

OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ROAP), has launched the second edition of its flagship publication "Disaster Response in Asia and the Pacific: A Guide to International Tools and Services". First published in 2013, the Guide is primarily designed to help disaster managers in national governments in Asia and the Pacific more effectively mobilize international and regional tools and services during a disaster response. The original Guide was developed in consultation with government officials across Asia and the Pacific and representatives of intergovernmental organizations, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement (RCRC Movement), national and international NGOs, donors and other key agencies worldwide. These partners were also consulted for the revised Guide.

Disaster Management Research Roadmap for the ASEAN Region

This disaster management research roadmap for the ASEAN region was created in the hopes that it will guide the process of achieving the goal of becoming a global leader on disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) by 2025. The principal objective of the Roadmap is to prioritize the research that needs to be done in the ASEAN region in order to enhance DRM and management practices and policy relevant to the ASEAN member states. The roadmap focuses on the needs of both the scientists and policymakers focusing and working on the ASEAN region. It provides a guiding framework for the future research topics that may be identified and created into potential projects that will contribute to decision-making processes in the disaster and other relevant sectors. While we have made every effort to be as comprehensive as possible as well as reflect the current disaster sector status in each ASEAN member state, we recognize that with the limited time, we may have not been able to fully encompass all ASEAN member state needs. We also recognize that time will lead to changes in emphasis and focus as well as national priorities, so this document should be reviewed from time to time in order for it to remain relevant. We would also like to emphasize that the success of the Roadmap will be dependent on the willingness of the scientists and policymakers in the ASEAN region to utilize the roadmap together to determine which projects they would like to collaborate on together. Without this imperative communication, the gap between the science and policy communities will remain and it will remain difficult to develop scientifically informed disaster management and DRM policies. It is also recognized that no single approach or suit all ASEAN member countries. We have tried to address this issue through the development of separate country-level roadmaps as well as a wider regionallevel roadmap. We hope that using this document as a guide, each ASEAN country as well as groups of countries as a regional effort, will develop its own implementation plan to incorporate science into their policy-making processes as well as policy into research topic-determining processes.-

Disaster Education and School Safety Governance after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Indonesia: From National Policy to Local Implementation

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami incentivized policy change in Indonesian disaster risk reduction, including disaster education and school safety governance. However, much research focuses on the results of pilot projects and rarely addresses policy change comprehensively from national to local levels, and across sectors. As such, little progress has been made in designing policy that ensures all-schools implementation. This chapter aims to review the progress of disaster education and school safety governance from the national and local levels. We focus on the elementary school level due to its importance in educating a new generation that may not have experienced disasters. Since disaster education and school safety is not an exclusive domain of disaster management policy, the state of policy convergence and coherence is assessed using discourse network analysis and content analysis. At the local policy level, the chapter describes a case from Banda Aceh city. It shows that although the city received various programs, implementation of disaster education and school safety is not attainable for all elementary schools, particularly due to the absence of city-wide policy. Accordingly, this chapter identifies the necessary policy instrument to ensure city-wide implementation of disaster education and school safety. The findings show that the best solution is to have a ministerial-level regulation in the education sector, combined with a local regulation (Perda) or mayor/regent regulation, which can ensure the use of a public budget. Availability of a policy directives or action plans at school level could be useful in obtaining the money and technical capacity needed for all-schools implementation. This in turn, will ensure coherence and connectivity between various policies from local government, disaster management and education to close the gap between national policy and local implementation of disaster education and school safety governance in Indonesia.

Typhoon Haiyan overwash sediments from Leyte Gulf coastlines show local spatial variations with hybrid storm and tsunami signatures

Marine inundation associated with the 5 to 8 m storm surge of Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 left overwash sediments inland on the coastal plains of the northwestern shores of Leyte Gulf, Philippines. The Haiyan overwash deposit provides a modern sedimentary record of storm surge deposition from a Category 5 landfalling typhoon. We studied overwash sediments at two locations that experienced similar storm surge conditions but represent contrasting sedimentological regimes, namely a siliciclastic coast and a mixed siliciclastic-carbonate coast. The contrasting local geology is significantly reflected in the differences in sediment grain size, composition and sorting at the two sites. The Haiyan overwash sediments are predominantly sand and silt and can be traced up to ~ 1.6 km inland, extending farther beyond the previously reported < 300 m inland limit of sedimentation. Sites with similar geology, topographic relief, and overland flow conditions show significant spatial variability of sediment thickness and inland extent. We infer that other local factors such as small-scale variations in topography and the type of vegetation cover might influence the spatial distribution of overwash sediments. The Haiyan overwash deposits exhibit planar stratification, a coarsening upward sequence, a non-systematic landward fining trend, and a sharp depositional (rarely erosional) basal contact with the underlying substrate. Overall, the Haiyan deposits have sedimentologic and stratigraphic characteristics that show a hybrid signature common to both storm and tsunami deposits.

The long term tsunami impact: Evolution of iron speciation and major elements concentration in tsunami deposits from Thailand

The article describes the unique studies of the chemical composition changes of new geological object (tsunami deposits in south Thailand – Andaman Sea Coast) during four years (2005–2008) from the beginning of formation of it (deposition of tsunami transported material, 26 December 2004). The chemical composition of the acid leachable fraction of the tsunami deposits has been studied in the scope of concentration macrocompounds – concentration of calcium, magnesium, iron, manganese and iron speciation – the occurrence of Fe(II), Fe(III) and non-ionic iron species described as complexed iron (Fe complex). The changes of chemical composition and iron speciation in the acid leachable fraction of tsunami deposits have been observed with not clear tendencies of changes direction. For iron speciation changes the transformation of the Fe complex to Fe(III) has been recorded with no significant changes of the level of Fe(II).

LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF KOKAP AREA USING MULTIPLE LOGISTIC REGRESSION

A number of landslides have occured in Kokap SubDistrict, Kulon Progo Regency, Yogyakarta Special Province, Indonesia, which have influenced the communities. The natural disaster is commonly associated with a few days of heavy rainfall events. To mitigate the impact of landslides in this area, a landslide susceptibility assessment needs to be carried out. The main objective of this research is to develop a landslide susceptibility zonation in the research area by applying a logistic regression (LR) method. Field observation was conducted at 68 locations in the research area, in which 46 landslides occured. Data of slope angle, lithology, geologic structure and groundwater conditions were collected. The relationship between landslide occurrence and the slope angle, lithology, geologic structure and groundwater conditions was analysed using the LR method. The analysis results showed a 0.984 standard error, implying a good-fit model. The study area was classified into very low, low, moderate, high and very high landslide susceptibility zones with 0–20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80%, and 80–100%, respectively, probabilities of occurrence. A 60% area of the total study area was classified as a moderate to very high susceptibility to landslide. From 47 landslides, 80% landslides occured in high and very high landslide susceptibility zones, 17% landslides occured in the moderate susceptibility zone and 2% landslides occured in the low susceptible zone. None of landslides occured in the very low landslide susceptibility zone. The analysis results show that LR method is a very useful method for landslide prediction.

EARTHQUAKE ATTENUATION MODELS AND ITS RESPONSES TO EARTH ZONE DAM IN UPPER NORTHERN PART OF THAILAND

The upper northern part of Thailand is mountainous area which classified as moderate risk by earthquake. This study was focused on the earthquake attenuation model of Abrahamson and Silva (2008). Exciting quake source from the Chiang Rai 2014 earthquake was recorded at earth zone dam site study. The accelerometer was installed in the bottom of dam which is 59 m height, 9 m width and 1,950 m length. The attenuation model is the relationship between acceleration, distance, size of earthquake, period of stabilization, characteristics of seismic sources and geological conditions. This research aims to compare the peak ground acceleration (PGA) between the attenuation models and the data measurement at the dam to check the accuracy of the model. And to study the dynamics analysis in the dam by using two selected time history records with different wave characteristics as: short period (EQ1) and long period (EQ2) to analyze the behavior of the pore water pressure, the stress and displacement in the dam. The results of this study revealed that the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) from the attenuation model of Abrahamson and Silva equal to 0.017787 g. And the percentage error of calculated PGA when compared to the PGA from measurement was 6.38. The analysis of the dynamics by using seismic waves with different time duration. EQ1 have made the pore water pressure on the dam higher when the effective stress in the dam decrease, which makes the displacement of the dam more than EQ2.

Sand Dunes and Mangroves for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Coastal Zone of Quang Nam Province, Vietnam

Seismotectonics of the 6 February 2012 Mw 6.7 Negros Earthquake, central Philippines

At 03:49 UTC on the 6th of February 2012, Negros Island in the Visayan region of central Philippines was struck by a magnitude Mw 6.7 earthquake causing deaths of over 50 people and tremendous infrastructure damage leaving hundreds of families homeless. The epicenter was located in the vicinity of the eastern coastal towns of La Libertad and Tayasan of the Province of Negros Oriental. Earthquake-induced surface deformation was mostly in the form of landslides, liquefaction, ground settlement, subsidence and lateral spread. There were no clear indications of a fault surface rupture. The earthquake was triggered by a fault that has not been previously recognized. Earthquake data, including epicentral and hypocentral distributions of main shock and aftershocks, and focal mechanism solutions of the main shock and major aftershocks, indicate a northeast striking, northwest dipping nodal plane with a reverse fault mechanism. Offshore seismic profiles in the Tañon Strait between the islands of Negros and Cebu show a northwest dipping reverse fault consistent in location, geometry and mechanism with the nodal plane calculated from earthquake data. The earthquake generator is here proposed to be named the Negros Oriental Thrust (NOT). Geologic transects established from structural traverses across the earthquake region reveal an east-verging fold-thrust system. In the latitude of Guihulngan, this fold-thrust system is represented by the Razor Back Anticline – Negros Oriental Thrust pair, and by the Pamplona Anticline – Yupisan Thrust pair in the latitude of Dumaguete to the south. Together, these active fold-thrust systems are causing active deformation of the western section of the Visayan Sea Basin under a compressional tectonic regime. This finding contradicts previous tectonic models that interpret the Tañon Strait as a graben, bounded on both sides by normal faults supposedly operating under an extensional regime. The Negros Earthquake and the active fold-thrust systems that were discovered in the course of the structural analysis provide strong arguments for basin inversion processes now affecting the Visayan Sea Basin, albeit under very slow strain rates derived from previous GPS campaigns. The occurrence of the earthquake in an area where no active faults have been previously recognized and characterized by slow present-day strain rates underscores the necessity of paying more attention to and exerting more effort in the evaluation of earthquake hazards of regions that are seemingly seismically quiet, especially when they underlie highly urbanized areas.

Awareness of tsunami natural warning signs and intended evacuation behaviors in Java, Indonesia

The south coast of Java has a long history of deadly seismogenic tsunamis. The most recent tsunami events in 1994 and 2006 killed hundreds due to lack of awareness and implementation of disaster mitigation strategies. Community-based tsunami hazard education programs founded on observation of natural warning signs and self-evacuation are critical to saving lives. Students at middle and high schools in three cities along the southern coast of Java (N = 887) participated in a pen/paper survey that included critical awareness, risk perception, self-efficacy, response efficacy, evacuation intentions, past participation in evacuation simulations, communication channels, and warning preferences. Participants generally had high perceived tsunami risk and efficacy. Overall, participants who associated tsunamis with earthquakes know that a receding ocean is a sign of an impending tsunami and believed that vertical evacuation was more important than inland evacuation. School, Internet, and social media were most often reported as information sources. However, the majority of participants believed that an earthquake had to be dramatic to cause a tsunami. Participants overestimated both the duration of ground shaking prior to a tsunami event and the suggested evacuation window. Differences between cities were found for evacuation simulation history and personal experience with tsunamis; however, neither increased critical awareness. Evacuation simulations, coupled with education of under what circumstances to evacuate (20/20/20 principle), should be implemented throughout Java. Short messages stressing that even weak earthquakes can cause tsunamis should be communicated through a variety of channels such as TV, radio, Internet, and social media.

Urban Flood Simulation Using MODCEL—An Alternative Quasi-2D Conceptual Model

Urban flood modelling has been evolving in recent years, due to computational facilities as well as to the possibility of obtaining detailed terrain data. Flood control techniques have also been evolving to integrate both urban flood and urban planning issues. Land use control and flow generation concerns, as well as a set of possible distributed measures favouring storage and infiltration over the watershed, also gained importance in flood control projects, reinforcing the need to model the entire basin space. However, the use of 2D equations with highly detailed digital elevation models do not guarantee good results by their own. Urban geometry, including buildings shapes, walls, earth fills, and other structures may cause significant interference on flood paths. In this context, this paper presents an alternative urban flood model, focusing on the system behaviour and its conceptual interpretation. Urban Flood Cell Model-MODCEL is a hydrological-hydrodynamic model proposed to represent a complex flow network, with a set of relatively simple information, using average values to represent urban landscape through the flow-cell concept. In this work, to illustrate model capabilities, MODCEL is benchmarked in a test proposed by the British Environmental Agency. Then, its capability to represent storm drains is verified using measured data and a comparison with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Finally, it is applied in a lowland area of the Venetian continental plains, representing floods in a complex setup at the city of Noale and in its surroundings.

Very-low-frequency resistivity, self-potential and ground temperature surveys on Taal volcano (Philippines): Implications for future activity

Taal volcano is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the Philippines. Thirty-three eruptions have occurred through historical time with several exhibiting cataclysmic phases. Most recent eruptions are confined to Volcano Island located within the prehistoric Taal collapse caldera that is now filled by Taal Lake. The last eruptive activity from 1965 to 1977 took place from Mt. Tabaro, about 2 km to the southwest of the Main Crater center. Since this time, episodes of seismic activity, ground deformation, gas release, surface fissuring, fumarole activity and temperature changes are recorded periodically around the main crater, but no major eruption has occurred. This period of quiescence is the third longest period without eruptive activity since 1572. In March 2010, a campaign based on Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) resistivity surveys together with repeated surveys of self-potential, ground temperature and fissure activity was intensified and the results compared to a large-scale Electrical Resistivity Tomography experiment. This work fortunately occurred before, within and after a new seismovolcanic crisis from late April 2010 to March 2011. The joint analysis of these new data, together with results from previous magnetotelluric soundings, allows a better description of the electrical resistivity and crustal structure beneath the Main Crater down to a depth of several kilometers. No indication of growth of the two geothermal areas located on both sides of the northern crater rim was apparent from 2005 to March 2010. These areas appear controlled by active fissures, opened during the 1992 and 1994 crises, that dip downward towards the core of the hydrothermal system located at about 2.5 km depth beneath the crater. Older mineralized fissures at lower elevations to the North of the geothermal areas also dip downward under the crater. Repeated self-potential and ground temperature surveys completed between 2005 and 2015 show new geothermal and hydrothermal activity in the areas of these older mineralized fissures that occurred during the April 2010 to March 2011 seismovolcanic crisis. This dramatically extends the geothermal activity further to the North on the volcano. The occurrence of these newly activated fissures after a long period of quiescence and indications of inflation in mid-2010 under the North rim of the Main Crater suggests that new eruptive activity near the North rim of the crater could occur in the future.

Rehabilitating coastal agriculture and aquaculture after inundation events: Spatial analysis of livelihood recovery in post-tsunami Aceh, Indonesia

This paper presents GIS time-series land-use analysis of satellite images to quantify the recovery of rice cultivation and aquaculture following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in coastal communities in Aceh, Indonesia. We supplement this with qualitative data to illustrate the post-disaster challenges faced by residents, and the extent to which coastal communities have adapted to post-tsunami realities. Our analysis shows that the rehabilitation of rice cultivation and aquaculture in areas inundated by the tsunami has been limited by extensive degradation of land, diversion of labor by tsunami mortality and transition to alternative livelihoods, and re-purposing of rice fields for residential use during the reconstruction phase. This is especially prominent in areas where subsistence activities are not the primary source of livelihood. The Aceh case study shows that social, economic, and environmental factors can be stronger determinants of how coastal livelihoods rebound and change following destructive inundation events than livelihood rehabilitation aid. Additionally, our case study suggests the human impact of coastal hazards can be felt outside the physical extent of inundation.

FROM A POISSON PROCESS MODEL TO A LAPLACIAN MARTINGALE PROCESS FOR EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING IN A REGION IN THE PHILIPPINES

The usual Poisson process for seismic hazard assessment is utilized as basis for constructing a Laplacian martingale process to respond to objections raised about the use of a Poisson model for forecasting earthquake occurrences. Seismic data from the Caraga Region of the Philippines were utilized in this study. The seismic signals themselves are shown to follow a power-law distribution with ? = 2.49915. Results show that the Laplacian martingale process predicted the arrival times of earthquakes with intensity 4 or greater with less than 1% relative error for the Caraga region. The unpredictability of the occurrence of earthquakes of such magnitudes appear to share the same unpredictability property with the occurrence of the nth prime in analytic number theory to Ph.D. as well as aligned teaching assignments, research outputs and other scholarly works.

Stakeholders’ perceptions of ecosystem services and Pangasius catfish farming development along the Hau River in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

This study identifies stakeholders’ perceptions of ecosystem services (ESS) along the Mekong River in Vietnam. It evaluates trade-offs made between ESS under different Pangasius catfish development scenarios, and stakeholders’ preferences to these scenarios. The study was conducted through interviews, focus group discussions and a questionnaire survey with 150 households. Rice cultivation and Pangasius catfish farming were identified as the most important economic activities. Provisioning services were scored as the most important ESS, followed by supporting, regulating and cultural services. Most stakeholders perceived that an intensification of Pangasius catfish farming would increase the production of catfish, but decrease nine other ESS, while integrated Pangasius catfish farming would decrease the Pangasius catfish production but increase nine other ESS. An integrated system was preferred by the majority of the respondents, mainly because it was perceived to enhance several ESS and provide benefits to local communities. In conclusion, a sustainable development of Pangasius catfish farming in the Mekong Delta must include local stakeholders’ participation and apply farming strategies that make use of the natural environment without severely or irreversibly degrading it.

Trust, Risk, and Time Preferences After a Natural Disaster: Experimental Evidence from Thailand

Natural disasters constitute a persistent threat to economic welfare in many places, particularly in developing countries. Not only can disasters transform living circumstances, but we provide evidence here that they can lead to important changes in individual preferences. In a series of experiments that we conducted in rural Thailand, we find that the 2004 tsunami led to substantial long-lasting increases in risk aversion, prosocial behavior, and impatience. We use GIS data and survey responses to identify disaster impact, showing that both community-level and individual-level experiences appear to affect preferences in theoretically plausible ways. Our findings have important implications for public policy efforts to address natural disasters.

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Coulomb stress transfer and accumulation on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar, over the past 110 years and its implications for seismic hazard

Myanmar is drawing rapidly increasing attention from the world for its seismic hazard. The Sagaing Fault (SF), an active right-lateral strike-slip fault passing through Myanmar, has been being the source of serious seismic damage of the country. Thus, awareness of seismic hazard assessment of this region is of pivotal significance by taking into account the interaction and migration of earthquakes with respect to time and space. We investigated a seismic series comprising10 earthquakes with M > 6.5 that occurred along the SF since 1906. The Coulomb failure stress modeling exhibits significant interactions among the earthquakes. After the 1906 earthquake, eight out of nine earthquakes occurred in the positively stress-enhanced zone of the preceding earthquakes, verifying that the hypothesis of earthquake triggering is applicable on the SF. Moreover, we identified three visible positively stressed earthquake gaps on the central and southern SF, on which seismic hazard is increased.

Seismic reconnaissance and observed damage after the Mw 6.8, 24 August 2016 Chauk (Central Myanmar) earthquake

On 24 August 2016 Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred near Chauk, Central Myanmar. This earthquake caused a significant amount of damage over a very large number of historical monuments. After providing a general summary of the regional tectonic settings and seismicity, the observed ground motion has been discussed, and performance of structures in the epicentral area is addressed, focusing on the damage observed in both historical and recent constructions. The observed damage patterns and their extent are analyzed and interpreted in light of observed damage that was found. Lastly, seismic fragility curves of local buildings have been derived.

Promoting a Global Standard for Community-Based Landslide Early Warning Systems (WCoE 2014–2017, IPL-158, IPL-165)

The implementation of early warning systems is in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030. One of the four priorities of the Sendai Framework for Action emphasizes the improvement of preparedness in response to a disaster by carrying out a simple, low-cost early warning system and improving its dissemination. A new proposal of a standard for community-based landslide early warning systems has been promoted to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) by Universitas Gadjah Mada, in corporation with the Indonesian Standardization Agency and the Disaster Management Authority. The standard will serve to empower individuals and communities who are vulnerable to landslides to act in sufficient time in appropriate ways to reduce the possibility of injuries, loss of life and damage to property and the environment. It is designed to encourage communities to play a much more active role in their own protection. The guidelines adopted the concept of people-centered early warning system by UN-ISDR (Developing an early warning system: a checklist. Bonn, Germany, 2006) and will be used by communities vulnerable to landslides, and by government agencies and non-governmental organizations at central, provincial, municipality/district, sub-district, and village levels. The recommendations include: (1) Risk assessment; (2) Dissemination and communication; (3) Formation of disaster preparedness and response teams; (4) Development of evacuation maps; (5) Development of standard operating procedures; (6) Monitoring, early warning, and evacuation drills; (7) Commitment of the local authority and community to maintain the system. The standard will be developed by ISO/TC 292 Security and resilience, with the participation of 43 countries in the committee’s work and another 14 as observers. The basic concept of this global standard has been initiated since 2007 through the Asian Joint Research on Early Warning of Landslides proposed by International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) and Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) Kyoto University and funded by JST and implemented in Indonesia, China, Korea and Japan. This paper describes the achievements and the current activities of the World Centre of Excellence (WCoE) on Landslide Risk Reduction (2014–2017), IPL Project (IPL-158) “Development of community-based landslide early warning system”, and IPL Project (IPL-165) “Development of community-based landslide hazard mapping for landslide risk reduction at the village scale in Java, Indonesia”.

Spatial Prediction of Landslides Along Jalan Kota in Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei) Using Airborne LiDAR Data and Support Vector Machine

A landslide is one of the most dangerous natural hazards that can cause considerable damage to human life and properties (Yin et al. 2009; Pradhan and Lee 2010; Jebur et al. 2014).

Barrier spit recovery following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape, southwest Thailand

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had notable impacts on coastal landforms. Temporal change in topography by coastal erosion and subsequent formation of a new barrier spit on the nearshore of Pakrang Cape, southeastern Thailand, had been monitored for 10 years since 2005 based on field measurement using satellite images, high-resolution differential GPS, and/or handy GPS. Monitored topography data show that a barrier island was formed offshore from the cape several months after the tsunami event through progradation of multiple elongated gravelly beach ridges and washover fan composed of coral gravels. Subsequently, the barrier spit expanded to the open sea. The progradation and expansion were supported by supply of a large amount of coral debris produced by the tsunami waves. These observations provide useful data to elucidate processes of change in coastal landforms after a tsunami event. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami played an important role in barrier spit evolution over a period of at least a decade.

Introduction: Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia: Progress, Challenges, and Issues

Indonesia is amongst the countries with the highest disaster risk globally. This risk is driven by the country’s high exposure to a range of geophysical and hydro-meteorological hazards, combined with grave vulnerabilities resulting from population growth, unequal economic development, urbanization, a lack of social and environmental considerations within development processes, and other drivers. Disasters caused by environmental hazards are becoming increasingly costly and severe in Indonesia. While efforts to manage disaster impacts and reduce disaster risk have long been considered, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami transformed the way disasters are viewed and how the risks are managed and reduced. Internationally, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters was adopted in 2005 and succeeded by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. In order to document the transformations that have taken place in disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Indonesia, this book presents the progress, challenges and issues concerned with DRR governance and practices. It aims to answer the following questions: Which advances in DRR have been made? Which roles do different actors have? Which remaining challenges and emerging new issues need to be addressed in order to enable more sustainable DRR in Indonesia? This introduction presents the rationale, objective and structure of the book.

ASEAN Secretariat

Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

Most volcanoes worldwide are not monitored in real-time; for those that are, patterns of pre-eruptive earthquakes coupled with conceptual models of magma ascent enable short-term forecasting of eruption onset. Basic event locations, characterization of background seismicity, and recognition of changes in earthquake types and energy release are most important to successful eruption forecasting. During renewed activity at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, this approach was used by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazards Mitigation (CVGHM) and the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program to forecast eruption onset, identify changes in eruptive styles and raise or lower alert levels and extend or contract evacuation zones. After > 400 years of quiescence, Sinabung began erupting in August 2010. The volcano was unmonitored at the onset of these eruptions, which were phreatic, but soon after a monitoring network was installed by CVGHM. Increasing swarms of high-frequency volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes were used to forecast continuing phreatic eruptions. Volcanic activity decreased in mid-September 2010, while additional intrusions at depth (inferred from continued distal VT swarms) continued through September 2013, when explosive phreatic eruptions recurred. Explosive eruptions were forecast based on increases in real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and VT seismicity. Seismicity changed markedly in late November and early December 2013 with the occurrence of deep earthquakes and an overall transition from low-frequency (LF) dominated and irregular (in time and magnitude) earthquakes to more regular LF and hybrid seismicity – a transition that accompanied the continued rise, eventual emergence and growth of a lava dome in the summit crater. This lava dome was first observed on 18 December. In late December 2013 to early January 2014, the eruptive style changed again as additional ascending magma deformed the summit and the dome grew beyond the capacity of the summit crater, resulting in the en masse collapse of the lava dome (2 Mm3) on 11 January and the largest pyroclastic flow to date. The collapse was forecast on the basis of a several order of magnitude increase in RSAM, continued strong distal VT seismicity, an increase in proximal seismicity, and large-scale observed deformation of the summit area. Similarly, a later collapse of a second summit lava dome on 1 February 2014 was forecast on the basis of increased distal seismicity. Here, we demonstrate how a process-based volcano seismicity model was used in combination with real-time data to forecast the time and magnitude of eruptions, as well as changes in eruption style.